Assumptions make traction-holes
Startup founders are usually pretty good at staying busy.
They build features. Redesign dashboards. Hire salespeople. Launch marketing campaigns. Add gamification. Polish the website.
The problem is that activity and traction are not the same thing.
On an episode of Zero Detraction, Josh David Miller and Cameron Law discussed what they call a “traction hole”: the gap created when a startup piles activity on top of assumptions it hasn't actually validated.
A founder can be working incredibly hard and still be digging that hole deeper.
As Josh described it, founders fall into traction holes when they are “acting busy, but not learning.” They build features nobody asked for, chase metrics that don't matter yet, and stack new experiments on assumptions that were never tested in the first place.
The solution isn't to stop moving fast. It's to make sure the startup is moving fast on the right problem.
What Is a Riskiest Assumption?
Every startup begins with assumptions.
Customers have this problem.
They care enough about the problem to look for a solution.
They'll use this particular solution.
They'll pay for it.
The company can deliver the solution economically.
The problem is that founders often start building before figuring out which of those assumptions could kill the company.
Josh and Cameron suggest evaluating assumptions through three basic lenses:
Desirability: Do customers actually want this?
Viability: Can the company create a sustainable business around it?
Feasibility: Can the company actually build and deliver it?
The riskiest assumption is the one that combines two characteristics: it's highly uncertain, and getting it wrong would have a major impact on the business.
Think of a startup like a house of cards.
Some assumptions are cards near the top. Pull one out and maybe nothing happens.
Others are sitting at the bottom.
Pull one of those out and the whole thing collapses.
Those bottom cards deserve attention first.
The Founder Trap: Bias Toward Action
This problem exists partly because one of the best characteristics of entrepreneurs can also become a liability.
Entrepreneurs are doers.
Plenty of people see problems. Plenty of people have ideas. Entrepreneurs are the people who actually try to build something.
That bias toward action is valuable.
But action without evidence can create a startup that looks impressive while resting on a shaky foundation. Josh compares the process to poker: when information is limited, the goal isn't to make the biggest possible bet. It's to make a smart bet that gives you additional information before putting more chips on the table.
The podcast explored three common examples of founders focusing on activity rather than risk.
1. Don't Polish the Dashboard Before Proving the Value
The first example involved a pre-revenue B2B SaaS company building software for independent mechanics.
The product helped mechanics manage customers, invoicing and parts ordering.
Before beginning beta outreach, however, the founders were spending time redesigning their dashboard to improve the product's first impression.
That sounds reasonable.
It's also potentially a distraction.
For early adopters with a painful enough problem, a beautiful dashboard probably isn't the deciding factor. Those customers are often willing to tolerate an imperfect interface if the product delivers meaningful value.
The bigger question is whether the product actually solves a problem mechanics care about.
Instead of asking:
How can we make the dashboard look better?
The startup should be asking:
How can we get users to experience meaningful value faster?
Cameron described this as moving away from the aesthetic “facade” of the product and focusing instead on the mechanism that actually creates value for the customer.
There will eventually be a time to improve the interface.
But polishing a product before validating its value is a little like waxing a car before discovering whether the engine starts.
2. Don't Optimize Retention Before You Have Customers
The second example involved a B2C app designed to help couples improve communication through emotional check-ins, daily prompts, mood logs and shared journaling.
The company was pre-revenue.
Its current development sprint?
Building streaks and gamification features designed to increase daily engagement.
Again, that sounds like legitimate startup work.
But Josh and Cameron argued that it was focused too far down the funnel.
They used the familiar pirate metrics framework:
Acquisition → Activation → Revenue → Retention → Referral
Gamification is largely a retention strategy.
But the company hadn't yet demonstrated that it could consistently acquire users, activate them and get them to pay.
In other words, it was optimizing retention before proving that there was something worth retaining.
There was also an even more fundamental unanswered question:
Will anyone pay for this?
If the startup spends six months improving engagement and then discovers that users disappear the moment a subscription fee is introduced, all that optimization did little to reduce the company's most important risk.
Worse, the product itself might change.
Perhaps couples aren't the best customer. Maybe therapists become the primary buyer and use the platform to track patient check-ins between sessions.
That isn't a complete reinvention of the product, but it could completely change how engagement works.
Features built around daily interaction between couples might suddenly become irrelevant.
That's why founders need to validate assumptions from the bottom up rather than building increasingly elaborate features on top of uncertainty.
3. Don't Hire a Salesperson to Discover Your Sales Process
The third example may be one of the most common mistakes among technical founders.
A B2B SaaS startup serving construction project managers had three pilots underway. The company wanted to increase sales conversations, so it hired its first sales development representative (SDR).
The problem?
The company hadn't yet demonstrated a repeatable sales process.
An SDR can help execute a playbook.
They shouldn't be expected to discover the playbook.
At this stage, the founders still need to understand questions such as:
Will the pilots convert into paying customers?
What value convinces customers to buy?
What objections consistently appear?
Who is actually the decision-maker?
What pricing model works?
How does the company consistently find the next customer?
Those conversations are valuable precisely because the answers aren't known yet.
And that means founders need to hear them.
As Cameron pointed out, outsourcing early sales can separate founders from the customer learning they desperately need. An SDR may report objections, but they generally aren't empowered to fundamentally reshape the product or business model based on those conversations.
Josh described the progression as moving from founder-only sales, to founder-led sales, and eventually to founder-less sales.
The dangerous move is trying to jump directly from founder-only to founder-less because the founder isn't comfortable selling.
Early sales aren't simply about closing deals.
They're another form of customer discovery.
If a founder genuinely cannot perform that role, Josh argues that the answer may not be hiring a salesperson at all. It may be finding a co-founder capable of helping shape the business alongside customers.
Progress, Distraction or Traction Theater?
Josh and Cameron offered three useful ways to categorize startup activity:
Aligned and risk-reducing means the work directly tests an important assumption and generates evidence the startup needs.
Distraction dressed as progress means the work looks productive but isn't addressing the company's most important uncertainty.
Traction theater means the startup is doing something that creates the appearance of traction without actually demonstrating it.
Hiring an SDR can look like traction.
Launching another feature can look like traction.
Redesigning a polished dashboard can look like traction.
None of them necessarily prove that customers want the product, receive value from it or will pay for it.
That's the distinction founders need to make.
Ask One Question Before Starting the Next Sprint
Before deciding what to build, hire, launch or optimize next, founders should ask:
What assumption, if proven wrong, would do the most damage to our business right now?
Then design the smallest reasonable experiment capable of generating evidence around it.
If the biggest uncertainty is whether customers have the problem, conduct discovery.
If the uncertainty is whether the proposed solution creates value, prototype it.
If the uncertainty is willingness to pay, ask for money.
If the uncertainty is whether pilots will convert, founders should personally work those conversions.
Only after reducing that risk should the company move to the next assumption.
The goal isn't to eliminate uncertainty. Startups will always involve uncertainty.
The goal is to avoid spending six months building a penthouse before finding out whether anyone wants to walk through the front door.
Founders don't need more activity.
They need better evidence.
And the fastest way to create real traction is often to stop working on the thing that feels productive and start testing the assumption they're most afraid might be wrong.
About Josh David Miller
Over the past decade, Josh David Miller has empowered over 100 startup founders and innovators to launch and scale their ventures. As the driving force behind the Traction Lab Venture Accelerator,
Josh specializes in guiding early-stage startups through the intricate journey from ideation to product-market fit. His expertise lies in transforming innovative concepts into viable, market-ready solutions, ensuring entrepreneurs navigate the challenges of the startup ecosystem with confidence and strategic insight.
About Cameron R. Law
Cameron R. Law is a Sacramento native dedicated to building community, growing ecosystems, and empowering entrepreneurs.
As the Executive Director of the Carlsen Center for Innovation & Entrepreneurship at California State University, Sacramento, he leverages his passion for the region to foster innovation and support emerging ventures. Through his leadership, Cameron plays a pivotal role in shaping Sacramento's entrepreneurial landscape, ensuring that innovators and builders have the resources and support they need to succeed.
