Mirror, Mirror: Are Your Startup Metrics Lying to You?
Introduction
Welcome to another spicy episode of Zero to Traction, where JDM (Josh David Miller) and Cameron Law unpack one of the sneakiest traps early-stage founders fall into: measuring the wrong things, the wrong way, at the wrong time.
In this episode—fittingly titled the Mirror, Mirror Edition—we ask a brutal but essential question: are your metrics giving you insight... or just reflecting what you want to believe?
Startups Have Traction Debt, Too
Startups often talk about technical debt. But there’s another kind of debt creeping into your cap table: traction debt.
It happens when founders skip real validation work. They delay experiments. They rely on glossy metrics instead of gritty evidence. And eventually, that avoidance compounds, costing you credibility, capital, and clarity.
To truly understand where you are, you have to hold up a mirror to the market and ask: Are we measuring what matters? Or just what flatters?
Metric 1: "We have a 3,000-person waitlist"
Sounds impressive, right? But here's the thing: waitlists are only as valuable as what they measure.
Cameron’s take:
What did those 3,000 people actually sign up for?
Was there a price point involved?
Are they your core customer or just friends being supportive?
JDM's take:
Most waitlists are glorified email lists.
Ask: "What are they waiting for?" If it’s not clear, it’s just noise.
30 people eager to pay beats 3,000 email signups any day.
Lesson: A waitlist only counts as traction when:
The people on it match your target persona.
The signup required meaningful commitment.
You're not using it to hide from launching.
Metric 2: "We got 500 Product Hunt upvotes"
Cass’s zinger: Is this a sign of product-market fit or just that you're good at Twitter?
JDM's critique:
Product Hunt users aren’t usually your long-term customers.
It’s a one-time dopamine hit, not a sustainable channel.
Cameron’s view:
Product Hunt is like crowdfunding: decent early validation, but not repeatable.
Great for testing appeal, terrible for testing stickiness.
Lesson:
Upvotes don’t equal retention.
Always ask: "Are these early adopters aligned with my ideal user?"
Metric 3: "We signed an MOU with a major enterprise"
Cass's mic drop: Traction or corporate cosplay?
JDM's angle:
MOUs often result in building something custom.
Even if they convert, you may veer off your product roadmap to serve one client.
That makes you a consultant, not a startup.
Cameron's point:
Who signed the MOU? Can they actually buy?
Is there a clear path to revenue, or is this just a polite head nod?
Lesson:
An MOU is only as good as the next step it leads to.
Ask: "Does this signal scalable demand or a one-off detour?"
The Real Question: Is This Metric a Signal of Repeatable Growth?
Across all three metrics, the question isn’t whether they matter. It’s when they matter and what they actually signal.
In every case, traction should:
Validate your riskiest assumptions.
Align with your go-to-market strategy.
Lead toward repeatability, not one-time wins.
Frivolous Thought of the Week
Cass, ever the snarky AI co-host, drops this gem:
"If your startup metrics were dating profiles, half of them would just say 'long walks on the beach' and have a blurry photo from 2016."
Swipe left on vanity. Swipe right on truth.
Final Thoughts
As JDM and Cameron wrap up post-Startup Challenge weekend, they're tired but energized. They've seen founders push through comfort zones, pivot hard, and pursue real traction over fake signals.
"Time is your most precious resource. Don’t waste it chasing glitter-glue metrics."
So next time you throw a metric into your pitch or dashboard, pause and ask:
Mirror, mirror, on the wall... is this real traction at all?
Subscribe to Zero to Traction to hear the hard truths, spicy takes, and tactical guidance you need to actually scale. No vanity metrics. No fluff. Just founders doing the work.
About Josh David Miller
Over the past decade, Josh David Miller has empowered over 100 startup founders and innovators to launch and scale their ventures. As the driving force behind the Traction Lab Venture Accelerator,
Josh specializes in guiding early-stage startups through the intricate journey from ideation to product-market fit. His expertise lies in transforming innovative concepts into viable, market-ready solutions, ensuring entrepreneurs navigate the challenges of the startup ecosystem with confidence and strategic insight.
About Cameron R. Law
Cameron R. Law is a Sacramento native dedicated to building community, growing ecosystems, and empowering entrepreneurs.
As the Executive Director of the Carlsen Center for Innovation & Entrepreneurship at California State University, Sacramento, he leverages his passion for the region to foster innovation and support emerging ventures. Through his leadership, Cameron plays a pivotal role in shaping Sacramento's entrepreneurial landscape, ensuring that innovators and builders have the resources and support they need to succeed.
